U.S. Workforce Trends

The U.S. labor workforce will be influenced in the next 10 to 15 years by a number of factors, including an aging population, a slower growth rate, technological advances and global competition.

The result will be a declining pool of workers and the need for more skilled employees as the economy shifts from occupations that are defined by manual and routine tasks to those that are complex and require more education and training. This will create competition for talent in the professional and technical fields, including health care, which is projected to generate three million new jobs in the 10-year period from 2006 to 2016. The demand for registered nurses alone is projected to grow 23 percent by 2016. In addition, environmental-related occupations will be in high demand, and there will an increased need for scientists and engineers.

By 2016, the Bureau of Labor Statistics projects U.S. workers and workplaces will have the following attributes:

• The size of the U.S. workforce will grow but at a slower pace, creating a reduced supply of workers entering the labor market. In the 10 years though 2016, the workforce will increase by 8.5 percent (12.8 million workers) compared to a 13.1 percent increase during 1996-2006 when the labor force grew by 17.5 million.

• The percentage of older workers (age 55 or over) will increase significantly (from 16.8 percent to 22.7 percent), while those age 25 to 54 will decline (68.4 percent to 64.6 percent) as will those age 16 to 24 (14.8 percent to 12.7 percent).
  
  
  
  

• The workforce will be more diverse. By 2016, Hispanics will continue to constitute an increasing proportion of the workforce, growing from 13.7 percent to 16.4 percent. Asians are projected to account for an increasing share of the workforce, growing from 4.4 to 5.3 percent. African-Americans also will increase their share, growing from 11.4 percent to 12.3 percent.
  
  
  
  

• The rate of growth of women in the workforce will increase slightly faster than the rate for men (8.9 percent to 8 percent).

• The long-term shift from goods-producing to service-providing employment is expected to continue, with occupations requiring higher education growing faster than those with lower-level requirements.

• Employment in professional, scientific and technical services is projected to increase by 28.8 percent, with health service and education jobs contributing the most to this job growth. A 2009 report by the Council of Economic Advisors projected that the growth between 2000 and 2016 in environmental-related occupations will be 52 percent, compared with 14 percent for all other occupational areas.
  
  
  
  

• Federal government employees comprise 1.4 percent of the nation’s workers, but will drop to 1.2 percent by 2016. Despite this relative decline, the projected retirement wave of federal employees coupled with normal turnover and new administration program priorities will require federal agencies to hire in large numbers.

Projected Occupational Demand: 2006 to 2016